Special Report - October 2024

Atlas Financial Advisors is providing this special report in light of several warning signals that have emerged in the US stock market and globally (assets and events). These are long-term indicators that can take more time to turn, but we think they merit caution with your portfolio allocations if you are heavily weighted in stocks, and especially tech stocks.

Valuation Warnings

In the chart below, the spread between equities valuations vs. commodities prices have never been this extreme. The 3 times this level of divergence occurred since 1900 it has led to a dramatic pullback in stocks and a large spike in commodities.

These value extremes would suggest shifting out of equities into commodities has a high probability of being a profitable trade over the next few years. Again, it may take further time for the shift to start in earnest, but picking the right dividend-paying companies in the several major commodities sectors would allow investors to earn dividends while we wait for this event to unfold.

The next chart is what Warren Buffett calls "the best single measure of where valuations stand." Known as the Buffett Ratio, it compares the market's value to GDP. This indicator just hit the highest level on record, breaking it’s prior 2022 peak (which peak BTW was followed by a 25% drop in the S&P500).

The Buffet Ratio is well above the highs of both the dot-com bubble and the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. The valuation run-up from the 2009’s low to today’s high was largely driven by Federal Reserve engineering that pushed interest rates lower through “quantitative easing” as well as its subsequent response to the COVID pandemic. These initiatives are now a thing of the past. And though they boosted the economy and financial assets at the time, they also drove inflation and the national debt (now at $36 trillion) sharply higher. The Fed’s posture now, after raising the Fed Funds rate 500 basis points, is focused on getting inflation lower, not goosing the economy and re-stimulating inflation. 

Similarities of the Decades 1999-2009 and 2014-2024

Probably the most instructive decade to compare to is 1999-2009. In the 1990s, the S&P 500 notched a four-fold leap and produced a total return by a multiple of more than five for the decade. Those eye-popping gains extended a rally started in the 1980s, where the benchmark index returned 396% (source: Ned Davis Research, MarketWatch 2009).

In the decade that followed, the S&P 500 was essentially flat and in fact returned an annual average loss of -0.95%. Stocks as a whole had a lost decade, especially tech stocks.

The chart below shows the Buffett Ratio at the 1999 market top (34%) before the start of a 3-year bear market, and today’s current level (44%). The Dot-Com bubble was followed by a roughly 50% drop in the tech sector. We are at a much higher valuation level today than we were before that market collapse of 2000-2003.

So what did do well during this abysmal decade? Commodities, especially energy, metals and materials companies. For example, the energy sector of the S&P 500 during this period returned 144%, or an average of 14.4% a year. During the same period the S&P500 was negative. (Source: Moneywise 2023)

Other Pressures to Consider 

We have some positives to report below, but lastly on the negative front, investors should not be complacent about the following:

  • Interest rates have declined from the 5% rise of 2022-2023, but the days of aggressive easing that fueled much of the valuation rise appear to be over

  • Our national debt is growing unabated to levels where it now appears taxes will not be able to cover the annual interest cost (see www.pgpf.org for more info)

  • Whereas government spending historically stimulated significant rises in GDP, that effect has dropped steadily since the deficit began to explode to where it now has no meaningful upside impact

  • Geo-political risks continue to reach new heights, complicated by constantly emerging technology risks and coordinated nation-state efforts to weaken the US

  • Our nation is as polarized as it’s ever been as we head into a Presidential election

  • Individual investors are extraordinarily bullish and invested in stocks, traditionally an indicator of at least an interim market top (see the Fear and Greed Index below).

Are There Any Positives Out There?

Leveraging analysis from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and an excellent market technician we follow, we see there are quite a few positives still are out there that are keeping valuations afloat. There are four data points that NBER (the folks who call recessions) monitor. What are they saying as of September 30, 2024? 

  1. Personal Savings was revised upward to 4.8% 

  2. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) year-over-year is at pre-Covid levels

  3. Consumer loans (Credit Cards) have been decelerating since 2022

  4. Consumer Delinquency on Credit Card payments have been decelerating since 2023

So, the economy is in better shape than many market prognosticators are willing to give it credit. Some other statistics that show a high probability of more stock market gains ahead:

  1. The S&P 500 Index finished a 5-month winning streak at the end of September. Since 1928, after a 5-month winning streak, the economic cycle did not peak over the following 12 months in 35 of 38 times -- a 92% probability the current economic cycle still has more room to run.                    

  2. After a 5-month winning streak, the historical probability the S&P 500 Index was higher 6 months later and 12 months later are both 84% (32 of 38).

  3. The largest block of buyers of the stock market – institutional buyers – continue to add to their stock market positions.

Where Does this Leave Us?

As we stated at the outset, the warning flags we shared are long-term indicators that can take months - and sometimes years - to finally turn after reaching extreme levels. We are about 4 years into the equities-commodities spread low, and about 1 year into the Buffett Ratio high. But eventually these will turn. Perhaps this is why Warren Buffett has been heavily reducing his epic holdings in Apple and other stocks behind his success, and raising cash to record levels. These turns take time, but once they start they tend to move quickly. With the value of stocks no longer compelling.  we can only guess Warren would rather leave the last bit on the table than have to chase prices that have already begun a downward spiral.

Accordingly, we believe it's time to shift allocations, selling tech stocks in particular, and any broad-market index funds or ETFs generally, and buying commodities stocks - as well as assets that historically rise when the US dollar weakens. Atlas Financial Advisors can provide specific recommendations to take advantage of this asset class shift. Contact us for further information.

September 2024 Planning Insights

For the next several months we will take a break from providing general market commentary and instead provide several Guides on financial topics that may be pertinent to your financial picture. This September 2024 edition addresses two related topics:

  • Strategies for Reducing Taxes on IRA Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)
    and

  • Converting a Traditional IRA to a ROTH IRA

Strategies for Reducing Taxes on Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

The tax you will pay on Retirement Account RMDs is an important cost to factor into a long term retirement plan. IRA distributions are considered ordinary income and as a result can push you into a higher tax bracket. Here are a few strategies to potentially reduce your RMD tax during retirement.

1.    Start withdrawals sooner to maintain a lower tax bracket in later years
Once you reach age 59 1/2, you can begin taking distributions from retirement accounts without penalty. Many retirees hold off taking distributions until their RMD age (currently 73 if born before 1960, 75 if born in 1960 or later). On one hand, delaying withdrawals can help retirement account assets continue to grow. However, as the following tables show, delaying distributions may also push you into a higher tax bracket in your later retirement years. If you expect to continue to have consistent non-investment income in your retirement years, this strategy is worth taking a closer look at with your tax advisor.

Minimizing RMDs

Scenario 1 | Without pre-RMD withdrawals

Without pre-RMD withdrawals, RMDs push this investor into the 32% tax bracket in retirement.

Scenario 2 | With pre-RMD withdrawals

Making annual withdrawals prior to RMD age, up to the limit of the 24% tax bracket, helps keep the investor out of the 32% tax bracket in retirement.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Calculations assume a married couple with $230,000 in combined taxable income and $2.5 million in combined tax-deferred accounts at age 65. Annual growth of 6% is added to the account balance at the end of each year, and nonportfolio income and tax brackets increase by 2% annually to account for inflation. Nonportfolio income may include business income, pension payments, rental income, Social Security benefits, etc. This hypothetical example is only for illustrative purposes. Tax changes and income fluctuations may negatively affect the outcome of this strategy.

Your expected income during retirement years, and the resulting tax brackets, will be the key determinants of the efficacy of this strategy. Again, consult your tax advisor to review different scenarios. 

2. Make qualified charitable distributions (QCDs)
You can donate up to $100,000 per year directly from your IRA to qualified charities. This counts toward your RMD but is not taxed as income. QCDs are a great way to give to charities you had planned to support without tapping into your non-RMD income. You have to be 70 ½ or older to make an eligible QCD.

3. Consider a qualified longevity annuity contract (QLAC)
You can use up to $200,000 from your IRA to purchase a QLAC, which provides guaranteed income later in life. The QLAC amount is excluded from RMD calculations. QLACs are the only way to buy an annuity with pre-tax money that pays out guaranteed income at a later date. Tax is paid on the annuity distributions rather than the RMD.

4. Keep working past age 73
If you're still employed, you may be able to delay RMDs from your current employer's 401(k) plan until you retire. Unfortunately, this only works for your 401(k) at your current employer.  

5. Donate your RMD to a 529 college savings plan
While this doesn't reduce taxes directly, it can be a tax-efficient way to save for education expenses that you had already planned to spend. RMDs are taxable distributions, but if you put RMD money into a 529 Plan, the money grows tax-deferred and can be withdrawn tax-free for educational expenses. You can also take the RMD from one account and put it into multiple 529s. If given to a parent or student 529 account, withdrawals for education expenses don’t count as income and are not taxed.

Should I convert my IRA to a ROTH?

Do you have a traditional or SEP IRA and have wondered if a ROTH IRA might be a better choice into your retirement years? If so, you’re not alone. This can be a confusing topic and the strategy has several pro’s and con’s.

First, let’s look at how the 2 types of retirement accounts differ. The fundamental difference is in how contributions and withdrawals are treated by Uncle Sam. Contributions to traditional IRAs are with pre-tax dollars, thus reducing your taxable income in the year you contribute; withdrawals are taxed at your modified gross income tax (MAGI) rate at the time of withdrawal (minimum age to withdraw without penalty is 59 ½).  The IRS currently requires you to withdraw a minimum amount (the RMD) starting no later than age 73 (75 for those born in 1960 or later). RMD amounts increase each year based on an IRS life-expectancy table. If you don’t withdraw the full amount each year before the deadline, then a steep penalty is assessed: 25% of the amount not taken.

Contributions to ROTH accounts, on the other hand, are in dollars you already paid tax on, and withdrawals are not taxed including earnings on the contributions. The ROTH IRA has a 5-year holding period, so this needs to be factored into your retirement funding.

So why consider converting to a ROTH?

Apart from tax-free withdrawals on earnings, there is no required minimum distribution (RMD), allowing your assets to continue to grow if you don’t need to tap them. This gives you full flexibility on how much you can withdraw and when, starting from age 59 ½ (and assuming your ROTH is more than 5 years old). You also can continue to make contributions to the ROTH, though the limits are low ($7-8K) and restricted further by MAGI limits.

The negative of converting to a ROTH – especially from a large IRA – is you may be required to pay the top marginal tax rate of 37% on most or all of the entire conversion amount (the conversion amount is added to your total taxable income). Unless it’s a year of high income where you can afford to pay the tax all at once, this may not be the best strategy.

Alternatively, however, converting your IRA gradually can spread the increase in income over several years and avoid subjecting it to the top marginal tax rate. Spreading conversions over multiple years often makes the most financial sense for larger IRAs. This can help reduce the tax owed each year by potentially keeping you in a lower tax bracket.

It’s also important to consider when you’ll need to withdraw funds from your Roth IRA. As mentioned, funds can’t be withdrawn without penalty within five years of the conversion. If you convert your IRA to a Roth gradually over time, those conversions each re-trigger the five-year rule for that portion of the money. So you would need to keep track of how much was converted each year and when the 5-year period for each conversion ends.
Once again, your expected income and tax rate during retirement will be a key determinants on whether converting to a ROTH makes sense. Consult a tax advisor who can take you through different income and tax scenarios to determine what approach makes best sense for you.

Sources: IRS, Smart Asset, Perplexity AI

Disclaimer

The information presented in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed by Atlas Financial Advisors, LLC (“Atlas”) to be reliable, but Atlas does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions or changes or from the use of information presented in this document. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view. Any headings are for convenience of reference only and shall not be deemed to modify or influence the interpretation of the information contained.

This information is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. It is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products mentioned. This document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.

Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by the personnel at any time without notice. This document is not to be reproduced, in whole or part, without the written consent of Atlas.